Today's economic calendar is relatively light, with most attention focusing on central bank decisions and speakers. The European session is dominated by the ECB's potential rate hike in June, followed by a possible second hike in September. The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged in June, with the first hike anticipated in September. The American session sees the US Consumer Confidence report, which is expected to tick lower, but its impact on the Fed's decision-making is limited.
The ECB's decision to hike rates in June is widely anticipated, with the focus shifting to the potential for further hikes in September. This aligns with the Fed's recent shift in focus towards inflation, as evidenced by Fed Waller's comments. The FOMC is likely to remove the easing bias from its statement in June, unless the US-Iran situation resolves before then. A more hawkish decision is possible if no changes occur.
The BoE's decision to keep rates unchanged in June is expected, with the first hike likely in September. This decision is in line with the ECB's approach, as both central banks are responding to inflationary pressures. The US Consumer Confidence report, while market-moving, is unlikely to significantly impact the Fed's decision-making at this point.
In summary, today's economic calendar highlights the central banks' focus on inflation and their respective decisions to adjust interest rates. The ECB and BoE's actions are expected to align with market expectations, while the Fed's decision-making is influenced by the easing bias removal and the US-Iran situation.
